Newly-released polls show negative news for Trump and GOP Senate, as Joe Biden expands the electoral map to states that have long been safe havens for the Republican Party.
Biden is locking in his lead over Trump in Arizona, a state not won by a Democrat in a presidential race since Bill Clinton, according to a new survey by OH Predictive Insights. Biden leads Trump by seven percentage points in Arizona. The poll has a margin of error of four percentage points.
This survey also shows bad news for Senate Republican incumbent Martha McSally, who seems to be losing ground in her reelection slot against Democrat Mark Kelly. A former astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, Kelly now leads McSally by 13 points. Just 30-days earlier, this same poll showed Kelly ahead by nine points.
In Georgia, Biden leads Trump by a single percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent, according to a poll conducted by Civiqs/Daily Kos that was released Tuesday and has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
An internal poll conducted last week by a group backing Georgia’s Republican Gov. Brian Kemp found Biden ahead of Trump by a margin of 47 percent to 46 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Both polls showed Democrat Jon Ossoff running strong against incumbent GOP Sen. David Perdue. While Ossoff has yet to secure his party’s nomination, he leads Perdue by 2 percentage points in the Civiqs/Daily Kos poll and trails by 2 points in the internal Republican poll.
If Biden does beat Trump in November, Democrats will only need to flip three Senate seats to retake the chamber where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 seat advantage. With Biden’s victory in the Democratic primary coupled with the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, the chances of what had been considered a long shot have greatly increased.
“It’s an extraordinary turn of events,” Neil Newhouse, a GOP pollster, told Vox. “This is not the political environment we expected at the beginning of the year.”